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Even
with Democratic control of both chambers, Joe Biden is unable to push
through minimal tightening of gun regulation © AFP via Getty Images I
recently found out that quoting one of my favourite poems is in effect
banned by the FT as a cliché. It was excised from a book review I wrote.
To be fair, it was probably about the fifth time I cited it in print
but nevertheless a pity since there really is no substitute. It is of
course from William Butler Yeats’s Second Coming: “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity”. As
you survey America’s political landscape, how could you improve on
these words? The worst, in America’s case, does not solely comprise the
Republican Party — although it leads the field. The Democratic Party’s
passionately intense cultural left is oblivious to the boomerang effects
of its rectitude. But where does that leave the others? “The
best” is of course a relative term. In today’s US landscape it is Joe
Biden struggling to do the right thing without always being sure what
that is. Since he lacks all conviction (I’m sticking with Yeats here),
his changing goals keep mocking his principles. Think of his Saudi
Arabia policy, whose crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, Biden branded a
pariah during the 2020 campaign. Now that Biden wants lower gas prices
to stem Democratic losses in the upcoming midterm elections, MbS is
suddenly back on the White House dance card. But the crown prince won’t
take Biden’s calls and said “simply, I do not care” what Biden thinks of him. It
might have been simpler to bring Iran back into the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action, which would have released an equivalent amount of oil
on to the global market. Biden’s immediate goal of bringing oil prices
down also undercuts one of his three main priorities — tackling global
warming. Remember the “three C’s”? Confronting China, Covid and climate
change were Biden’s big goals. I am really not sure where Biden now
stands on Cs two and three since there are either confusing signals, or
none, coming out of the White House. This
is the price of having a non-fanatic in charge. All kinds of messy
events — such as inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or unexpected
shortages of baby milk formula — clash with the clarion calls you issued
on the campaign trail. Reasonable leaders adjust to changing realities.
Fanatics plough ahead. But reasonableness is not the same as being
master of the narrative. America’s pendulum is thus already swinging
back to the people with passionate intensity. It is hard to see how
Democrats will hold on to the House of Representatives in November and
probably the Senate as well. This will have two impacts on Biden’s
fortunes. The
first will be to kill his domestic agenda, or what remains of it. Even
today with Democratic control of both chambers, Biden is unable to push
through minimal tightening of gun regulation — and that is after having
last week given his most impassioned prime time address on the subject.
The bully pulpit is no match for the National Rifle Association. The
second will be to embolden the restive progressive wing of the
Democratic Party, which has tolerated Biden’s centrist governing style
without admiring it. Expect leftists to be empowered by a midterm
Democratic defeat and intraparty fighting to grow. After
that comes a nail-biting two years in which Biden hopes the economy
will rebound after a soft landing and Republicans will politically
over-reach. The alternative is too Yeatsian to contemplate — think of
blood-dimmed tides and anarchy being loosed upon the world. Even if
Republicans misplay their cards (a likelihood) and the Fed engineers a
smooth glide path (say 50-50), an 81-year-old Biden will still face a
close election fight against Donald Trump or a younger Maga-touting
version. I
have covered US politics close up for many years and cannot see where
America’s tragically besieged democracy will catch its next break. In
the meantime, I retreat to Yeats and pray that “Surely some revelation
is at hand”. |